After collecting data for all 32 teams over the long haul of the football season, I hope to find hints in the prop market at SI Sportsbook in the postseason. Each team has an offensive structure, which reflects the health of their star players.
Over the first 17 games, the 49ers’ defense played well vs. the run (389/1,321/11). Running backs gained only 3.4 yards per rush on 327 runs for 1,108 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Here are the opening prop lines for the Cowboys’ running backs for rushing yards:
• Tony Pollard – 46.5
• Ezekiel Elliott – 34.5
Bet on Cowboys-49ers at SI Sportsbook
My projections for Pollard (43 yards) and Elliott (29 yards) fall on the underside of their betting lines, but they are closing enough to avoid making a significant wager. San Francisco held running backs to fewer than 85 yards in nine of their last 10 games in the regular season.
The 49ers finished the year with 20 interceptions and 44 sacks while allowing 241 passing yards per game. Quarterbacks gained 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 20 passing scores. San Francisco didn’t allow a receiving touchdown to a running back (93/573/0 on 128 targets – 6.2 yards per catch). Their wideouts (222/2,847/16 on 335 targets) gained more than 200 yards in five games (15/271/3, 23/244, 13/259/2, 15/205/3, and 13/212/2).
Here’s a look at the midweek projections for the Dallas Cowboys:
Here are the opening prop lines for the wide receiver for Dallas in receiving yards:
• CeeDee Lamb – 77.5 yards
• Dalton Schultz – 42.5 yards
• Michael Gallup – 36.5 yards
These players are almost on my number for receiving yards (Lamb – 72, Schultz – 40, and Gallup – 36). If a line is listed later in the week, my best play is over for the receiving yards for T.Y. Hilton. He has been pressing for WR3 snaps over the past two games.
BET: T.Y. Hilton – Over TBD Receiving Yards
SI Sportsbook has Dak Prescott projected for 250.5 yards. Based on the 49ers picking off 10 passes over their final six games in the regular season and Prescott tossing 11 balls to the other team over his final seven games, the best play on the Cowboys side of the game is over a half of an interception by Prescott (-163).
BET: Dak Prescott – Over 0.5 interception (-163)
The Cowboys’ defense played well over their first seven games (14.9 points per game). Over the past 10 games, offenses scored 23.8 points per game vs. Dallas. They allow 4.4 yards per rush (497/2,198/10), with running backs catching 62 passes for 457 yards on 74 targets.
Here’s a look at the midweek projections for the San Francisco 49ers:
Here are the opening prop lines for the 49ers’ running backs for rushing yards and receiving yards:
• Christian McCaffrey – 65.5 rushing yards, 34.5 receiving yards
Last week, the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for 74% of their snaps while giving Elijah Mitchell nine rushes. In addition, Deebo Samuel (three carries for 32 yards) reemerged as a factor in the run game. I have him projected to gain 77 rushing yards. I was interested to see the prop line for Mitchell, but there is nothing listed midweek. I also have McCaffrey projected for 38 receiving yards.
San Francisco has been on fire running the ball over their last six contests (36/209/3, 34/170/1, 26/153/2, 27/170/2, 37/169/2, and 33/181/1).
BET: Christian McCaffrey – Over 65.5 rushing yards (-125)
BET: Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+270)
Dallas will attack the quarterback, but they allowed a receiving touchdown (13 total) to wide receivers in eight consecutive games. Wideouts have 204 combined catches for 2,659 yards and 21 touchdowns. Quarterbacks gained 222 yards per game (6.8 yards per pass attempt) with 23 touchdowns. Tight ends (78/635/1 on 112 targets) only have one touchdown against Dallas.
Here are the opening prop lines for the wide receiver for San Francisco in receiving yards:
• Deebo Samuel – 54.5
• Brandon Aiyuk – 53.5
• George Kittle – 49.5
The betting lines are also close to my projections for yards (Samuel – 47, Aiyuk – 54, and Kittle – 50).
I have Brock Purdy on a track for 217 passing yards, as I expect the 49ers to have success running the ball. SI Sportsbook set his over/under at 239.5 yards.
Over his seven starts, Purdy averaged 27.3 passes per game. He gained over 240 passing yards in two matchups. I expect the 49ers to run a balanced offense, leading to San Francisco attempting fewer than 30 passes.
BET: Brock Purdy – Under 239.5 passing yards
